By 
Etienne de Malherbe
24 August 2022

An energy-based macroeconomic growth model and the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict

Introducing the first econometric model of Gavekal-IS, about economic growth, as summarized in our previous publication, “Economic Value-at-Risk”. This time, with full transparency, mathematical, data construction, and simulation details.
Our goal here is to track the economic Value-at-Risk of the European Union facing the unprecedented combination of primary energy scarcity, primary energy massive inflation, and secondary inflation.

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