By 
Etienne de Malherbe
27 September 2022

impact of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict: Germany, France and Italy

This note continues on the GDP accounting model introduced by Gavekal-IS in August 2022, by analysing and comparing the place of energy in the GDP production of the European Union, Germany, France and Italy.

In the context of the 2022 Russo-Ukrainian conflict, the model is able to provide estimates of the potential impacts of energy price spikes or volume shortages on the GDP output, which is a particularly salient issue for the economy of the European Union.

In particular, in the year ahead, with a 1 in 3 chances, the model reports that, even in the absence of any shortage in energy supply, the whole European Union, Germany, France and Italy would go into recession at rate of -1.2% to -0.3%.

The economy having the highest exposure to recession because of primary energy price spikes and volume shortages is Italy.


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