The Gavekal TrackMacro model combines seven fundamental macroeconomic rules to provide equity risk-on or risk-off signals in 40 countries. One of these, the USD liquidity rule, measures the growth of USD availability in the world in real terms. It turned positive at the end of March 2020, for the first time since December 2017. The dollar shortage is over. It is time to overweight emerging markets.
One of the notable financial events of 2019 was the switch by major central banks to a ‘Keynesian-type’ global monetary policy. Keynesian polices target the ‘euthanasia of the rentier’, so we know quite well who is likely to suffer from them. The question is, however: who benefits from the crime?