Sometimes the stock market suffers from a divergent strabismus. Its left eye observes economic activity in the present moment, and its right eye the value of likely cash flows in the next ten years. Today the right eye is pointing to the ground as the resurgence of global inflation weighs heavily on stocks’ multiples. However, and since the end of last month, the left eye has been staring into the sky: our leading indicator of international trade announces a strong rebound in the next two months.
Which is the guiding eye for the global vision?