Gavekal-IS Publication

Our approach to financial markets is somewhat unconventional. Our starting point is to look at money, for the simple reason that “money” is the measuring unit through which all changes in asset prices and portfolios are recorded. ...
From there, we acknowledge that money can circulate more or less fast through our economies, and through our financial markets. And that such changes in the velocity of money are key drivers to changes in asset prices and market crash risk. In a third step, we further acknowledge that different assets present very different attributes: some are fragile, others are resilient, while still others are antifragile. In a fourth step, we look at portfolio construction in light of the prevailing macro-economic environment and the above three factors. In a fifth step, we look at how investors should measure risk. And finally, we acknowledge that exogenous shocks (such as COVID-19) can come out of nowhere and occasionally destabilize financial markets. Our research is thus split along these six key themes and every fortnight, we publish a note with the important changes we have witnessed in one of these six key areas.
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10 September 2021
The Snake That Bites Its Own Tail
3 September 2021
The Speculator, the Moderate, and the Rentier
27 August 2021
The η-Curve
20 August 2021
The Law of Diving Rats
13 August 2021
The Great Bifurcation
3 August 2021
The Leaking Seal
26 July 2021
Dangerous Fractality
19 July 2021
Managing vs. Forecasting
9 July 2021
Crash Risk?
2 July 2021
22 June 2021
Voluntary Servitude
11 June 2021
Equality vs. Freedom