Gavekal-IS Publication

Our approach to financial markets is somewhat unconventional. Our starting point is to look at money, for the simple reason that “money” is the measuring unit through which all changes in asset prices and portfolios are recorded. ...
From there, we acknowledge that money can circulate more or less fast through our economies, and through our financial markets. And that such changes in the velocity of money are key drivers to changes in asset prices and market crash risk. In a third step, we further acknowledge that different assets present very different attributes: some are fragile, others are resilient, while still others are antifragile. In a fourth step, we look at portfolio construction in light of the prevailing macro-economic environment and the above three factors. In a fifth step, we look at how investors should measure risk. And finally, we acknowledge that exogenous shocks (such as COVID-19) can come out of nowhere and occasionally destabilize financial markets. Our research is thus split along these six key themes and every fortnight, we publish a note with the important changes we have witnessed in one of these six key areas.
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25 February 2021
US PE Expansion: Game Over!
19 February 2021
Inflation and Earnings’ Illusion
12 February 2021
Inflation: The Equity Nightmare
4 February 2021
The Second Wave
1 February 2021
A Major Step
22 January 2021
3D Finance
14 January 2021
Do Keynesian Policies Increase Stock Market Fragility?
8 January 2021
Wicksell Read the Book!
30 December 2020
The Mason’s Guide to Leading Indicators (English Version)
30 December 2020
Le Guide du Maçon pour les Indicateurs Avancés (French Version)
24 December 2020
The Mason’s Strategy (English Version)
24 December 2020
La Stratégie du Maçon (French Version)