Gavekal-IS Publication

Our approach to financial markets is somewhat unconventional. Our starting point is to look at money, for the simple reason that “money” is the measuring unit through which all changes in asset prices and portfolios are recorded. ...
From there, we acknowledge that money can circulate more or less fast through our economies, and through our financial markets. And that such changes in the velocity of money are key drivers to changes in asset prices and market crash risk. In a third step, we further acknowledge that different assets present very different attributes: some are fragile, others are resilient, while still others are antifragile. In a fourth step, we look at portfolio construction in light of the prevailing macro-economic environment and the above three factors. In a fifth step, we look at how investors should measure risk. And finally, we acknowledge that exogenous shocks (such as COVID-19) can come out of nowhere and occasionally destabilize financial markets. Our research is thus split along these six key themes and every fortnight, we publish a note with the important changes we have witnessed in one of these six key areas.
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27 July 2022
The Leaders’ Tail Risk? Models. Part I
18 July 2022
The Mysterious Yen
8 July 2022
Corp. Bond Yields!
1 July 2022
Inflationary Boom Or Bust?
20 June 2022
War Economy
8 June 2022
1 June 2022
World Crash Ahead
23 May 2022
Euro, Dollar, Yen, or Yuan?
13 May 2022
Message In A Bitcoin
29 April 2022
Is Health… Luxury?
22 April 2022
A First In World Monetary History
19 April 2022
Pricing The VIX Better Than The VIX