Gavekal-IS Publication

Our approach to financial markets is somewhat unconventional. Our starting point is to look at money, for the simple reason that “money” is the measuring unit through which all changes in asset prices and portfolios are recorded. ...
From there, we acknowledge that money can circulate more or less fast through our economies, and through our financial markets. And that such changes in the velocity of money are key drivers to changes in asset prices and market crash risk. In a third step, we further acknowledge that different assets present very different attributes: some are fragile, others are resilient, while still others are antifragile. In a fourth step, we look at portfolio construction in light of the prevailing macro-economic environment and the above three factors. In a fifth step, we look at how investors should measure risk. And finally, we acknowledge that exogenous shocks (such as COVID-19) can come out of nowhere and occasionally destabilize financial markets. Our research is thus split along these six key themes and every fortnight, we publish a note with the important changes we have witnessed in one of these six key areas.
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3 May 2021
Economic Boom and Financial Bust
23 April 2021
The Gilets Jaunes Multiple
19 April 2021
You Can’t Print Oil
9 April 2021
The One Golden Gram Rule
1 April 2021
Bonds. Which Bonds? Update.
26 March 2021
System 2 For Bonds
19 March 2021
Interest Rates: Last Round For Equities
12 March 2021
Negative Mass In Finance
4 March 2021
No Nation was Ever Ruined by Trade.
25 February 2021
US PE Expansion: Game Over!
19 February 2021
Inflation and Earnings’ Illusion
12 February 2021
Inflation: The Equity Nightmare