Gavekal-IS Publication

Our approach to financial markets is somewhat unconventional. Our starting point is to look at money, for the simple reason that “money” is the measuring unit through which all changes in asset prices and portfolios are recorded. ...
From there, we acknowledge that money can circulate more or less fast through our economies, and through our financial markets. And that such changes in the velocity of money are key drivers to changes in asset prices and market crash risk. In a third step, we further acknowledge that different assets present very different attributes: some are fragile, others are resilient, while still others are antifragile. In a fourth step, we look at portfolio construction in light of the prevailing macro-economic environment and the above three factors. In a fifth step, we look at how investors should measure risk. And finally, we acknowledge that exogenous shocks (such as COVID-19) can come out of nowhere and occasionally destabilize financial markets. Our research is thus split along these six key themes and every fortnight, we publish a note with the important changes we have witnessed in one of these six key areas.
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24 November 2022
Sharpe Is Sharp
16 November 2022
The Currency Debasement Index
4 November 2022
The Day After
21 October 2022
Persistent Inflation
13 October 2022
World Bust Tracker
27 September 2022
impact of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict: Germany, France and Italy
27 September 2022
Beware of Italy!
16 September 2022
Inflation Relief: When?
12 September 2022
Japan At A Crossroads
24 August 2022
An energy-based macroeconomic growth model and the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict
19 August 2022
Economic Value-at-Risk
27 July 2022
The Leaders’ Tail Risk? Models. Part I