Gavekal-IS Publication

Our approach to financial markets is somewhat unconventional. Our starting point is to look at money, for the simple reason that “money” is the measuring unit through which all changes in asset prices and portfolios are recorded. ...
From there, we acknowledge that money can circulate more or less fast through our economies, and through our financial markets. And that such changes in the velocity of money are key drivers to changes in asset prices and market crash risk. In a third step, we further acknowledge that different assets present very different attributes: some are fragile, others are resilient, while still others are antifragile. In a fourth step, we look at portfolio construction in light of the prevailing macro-economic environment and the above three factors. In a fifth step, we look at how investors should measure risk. And finally, we acknowledge that exogenous shocks (such as COVID-19) can come out of nowhere and occasionally destabilize financial markets. Our research is thus split along these six key themes and every fortnight, we publish a note with the important changes we have witnessed in one of these six key areas.
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3 December 2021
19 November 2021
Les Actions dans une Société de Contrôle – Partie III
19 November 2021
Equities In A Society Of Control – Part III
12 November 2021
The Divergent Strabismus Of The Stock Market
29 October 2021
The Wild Dollar Emigrates To Wall Street
21 October 2021
Good Old Essential Stocks!
15 October 2021
Stagflation: More Than A Short-Term Risk
8 October 2021
1 October 2021
No, Is Like Cash
24 September 2021
Bearish Chinese Equities? Not Really
17 September 2021
Bonds, TIPS, Cash, or Gold?
10 September 2021
The Snake That Bites Its Own Tail