Last Friday, the COVID-19 omicron variant from southern Africa awoken loudly under the horns of the media, and European stocks lost nearly 5% in the day. Bad surprise!
The financial market seems to have been invented to surprise managers, more specifically to dispel the surprise, and managers generally do not like this too much.
What are the market consequences of surprises?
This note offers an update on our predictions for the COVID-19 pandemic, and reveals the first statistically significant discriminating factor that we have found for the spreading across countries. The note results from the academic cooperation between Gavekal Intelligence Software, the ETH Zurich, Switzerland, and the SUSTech in Shenzhen, China.
Given the diversity of parameters influencing its potential trajectory, the COVID-19 pandemic is a real challenge for scientists. If there’s something everybody agrees upon, it’s that everyone disagrees… This note proposes a simple method to forecast peaks in the epidemic. It brings with it good and bad news.
The Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China, and ETH Zurich, Switzerland, have recently teamed up with Gavekal Intelligence Software to conduct collaborative research in finance and risk management.
Last week, the COVID-19 epidemic turned into a financial pandemic. The MSCI World equity market suffered its third worst loss ever in a week, right behind the 1987 and 2008 crashes. However, the number of new infections in the world had turned out to be some 40% fewer than during the previous week. So, why did the market crash?
How can one track daily the systemic risk developing with the coronavirus epidemic? 'Top-down’ models are often more robust than the ´bottom-up’ ones to capture the behavior of complex systems. The Quant Corner note proposes a simple one.