An easy way to understand the difference between gold, silver, and copper is to gift your wife a piece of jewelry made of one of these metals and wait for her reaction.

But if you're an investor, the problem gets more complicated. All three metals have had historically similar uses: hoarding, jewelry, and industry, but with varying proportions as well as differing energy cost to extract, therefore their prices are not similarly sensitive to macroeconomic factors.

Let's take a closer look.

When the press talks about a crash, they refer to 1929, 1987, 1998, 2000 or 2008. In short, stocks. Today, we are experiencing a different kind of crash, that of government bonds, one of the three worst events in this market over the last 150 years.

Bonds have become toxic in the developed world.

However not in another world: commodity exporters.

One of the notable financial events of 2019 was the switch by major central banks to a ‘Keynesian-type’ global monetary policy. Keynesian polices target the ‘euthanasia of the rentier’, so we know quite well who is likely to suffer from them. The question is, however: who benefits from the crime?

Are financial markets today made vulnerable by the price of oil reaching new heights? Most severe equity drawdowns in the last fifty years were preceded by an inflationary shock on oil. Turning risk asset positions into cash ahead of extreme events is one of the very few possibilities to safeguard investment values, and to generate substantial alpha on the long run. So, is it time to reduce the sails? TrackMacro’s answer is negative, and for a fundamental reason originating in physics and statistical finance.

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