One of the notable financial events of 2019 was the switch by major central banks to a ‘Keynesian-type’ global monetary policy. Keynesian polices target the ‘euthanasia of the rentier’, so we know quite well who is likely to suffer from them. The question is, however: who benefits from the crime?
Are financial markets today made vulnerable by the price of oil reaching new heights? Most severe equity drawdowns in the last fifty years were preceded by an inflationary shock on oil. Turning risk asset positions into cash ahead of extreme events is one of the very few possibilities to safeguard investment values, and to generate substantial alpha on the long run. So, is it time to reduce the sails? TrackMacro’s answer is negative, and for a fundamental reason originating in physics and statistical finance.