The Gavekal TrackMacro model combines seven fundamental macroeconomic rules to provide equity risk-on or risk-off signals in 40 countries. One of these, the USD liquidity rule, measures the growth of USD availability in the world in real terms. It turned positive at the end of March 2020, for the first time since December 2017. The dollar shortage is over. It is time to overweight emerging markets.

Oxymorons are powerful combinations of contradictory meanings. In practice, oxymorons tend to develop at the margin and at the boundary conditions of a theory, or of a stable environment. Thus, they can reflect instabilities, contradictory forces, potential regime shifts etc. For this reason, they must be taken seriously. World trade is, today, behaving like an oxymoron…

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