You take this route in your car every morning. It is second nature to you, controlling the risk of any collision. And then one day, a bike suddenly steers too far to the right. Your adrenaline kicks in, you brake, you swerve, and just barely escape an accident.

Here is my first bet: You will drive very carefully the rest of your route and the next day and even the days following that, until, gradually, you return to your usual habits.

And my second bet: The same thing occurs on the VIX and all volatility indices. The way our memory of stress amortizes gives the price of the VIX – and gives it better than the consensus.